Tropical Storm Francine, which formed and intensified rapidly on Monday in the southern Gulf of Mexico, is now forecast to strike Louisiana as a dangerous Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a hurricane warning for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, and a storm surge warning from High Island, Texas, to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Storm Overview and Intensification
As of Monday evening, Francine was approximately 150 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande in Texas, with maximum winds reaching 65 mph. The storm is moving north-northwest at 7 mph. The NHC reported that Francine's structure has continued to improve, with a calm eye beginning to form and peak winds increasing by 20 mph since the morning. The storm is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday morning, with further intensification possible as it moves over warm Gulf waters.
Expected Impacts
Storm Surge: Francine is anticipated to bring a life-threatening storm surge along the Louisiana coast, with maximum surge levels potentially reaching 5 to 10 feet from Cameron to Port Fourchon. This surge could also affect parts of the upper Texas coast northeast of Galveston and Houston.
Wind: Winds of 75 to 100 mph are likely near the storm center upon landfall, potentially causing minor structural damage, downed trees, and power outages. Coastal areas like Lake Charles and Morgan City will experience the brunt of these winds, while inland areas such as Lafayette and Baton Rouge may see gusts over 60 mph.
Rainfall: Heavy rainfall is expected to cause considerable flash flooding in southernmost Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible near the storm’s center, with localized double-digit totals. Lafayette and Baton Rouge are expected to experience significant rainfall, while New Orleans could see 3 to 6 inches of rain and some areas of flooding depending on the storm’s track.
Tornado Risk: A low-end tornado risk may develop, particularly east of the storm center. Dry air interacting with Francine's moist flow could lead to a band of thunderstorms moving across Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday into Thursday.
City-Specific Guidance
Lake Charles: Prepare for hurricane-force winds and significant storm surge. Secure outdoor items, have emergency supplies ready, and follow evacuation orders if issued.
Morgan City: Expect strong winds and a potentially dangerous storm surge. Ensure you have a plan for evacuation if needed and stock up on essential supplies.
Lafayette: Be prepared for gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Check your emergency supplies and consider evacuation if you are in a vulnerable area.
Baton Rouge: Prepare for heavy rain and potential flooding. Keep an eye on local advisories and have a plan in place.
New Orleans: Expect tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rain. Be ready for possible flooding and follow local guidance.
Supplies and Preparations
Residents in affected areas should gather the following essential supplies:
Non-perishable food: Canned goods, dry foods, and ready-to-eat meals for at least three days.
Water: At least one gallon per person per day for at least three days; consider getting several cases.
Battery-powered or hand-crank radio: To stay updated with weather alerts and emergency information.
Flashlights: With extra batteries.
First aid kit: Including necessary medications and personal hygiene items.
Important documents: Keep in a waterproof container, including identification, insurance policies, and medical records.
Battery packs or chargers: For electronic devices, and consider a portable power bank.
Manual can opener: For food if needed.
Hurricane kit: Including basic tools, tarps, duct tape, and a multi-tool.
Generator: If you have one, make sure it’s in good working condition and you have enough fuel.
Clothing and bedding: Including warm layers, blankets, and sleeping bags.
Pet supplies: Food, water, medications, and a pet carrier if applicable.
Sanitation supplies: Trash bags, wipes, and hand sanitizer.
Portable phone charger: To ensure communication in case of power outages.
Local maps: In case of evacuation, you might need them if GPS services are unavailable.
Evacuation Considerations
For those living in trailers or mobile homes, it may be safest to evacuate in advance of the storm to avoid potential damage. Monitor local advisories for evacuation orders and plan your route ahead of time.
Post-Landfall
After making landfall, Francine is expected to weaken as it moves inland, but heavy rains will continue to pose a risk in the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. Expect rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches as far north as Kentucky or southern Illinois.
Stay tuned to local news and weather updates for the latest information and guidance on how to stay safe during this severe weather event.
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